Energy Modeling
My energy modeling research combines optimization models and agent-based approaches to analyze public policies for the decarbonization of energy systems. I work on multi-model comparison exercises to assess Net Zero pathways, study the role of energy storage in renewable energy uptake, and design agent-based models to understand household adoption of green technologies. This work spans collaborative projects across institutions in the US, Europe, and Latin America.
Net Zero Pathways
Multi-model comparison exercises assessing technology pathways and distributional effects of Net Zero emissions targets.
Energy Storage & Renewables
Model comparison approaches to understand the role of energy storage in the integration and uptake of renewable energy sources.
Power System Modeling
Analysis of power system dynamics under policy changes, including the effects of natural gas price variations on US-Mexico systems.
Agent-Based Models
Design and implementation of agent-based models to understand households' adoption of green technologies and the energy transition.
Renewable Energy Integration
Scenario analysis for integrating renewable energy sources into national energy systems, with focus on Mexico and developing economies.
Published (9)
Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts
John Bistline, et al.
Energy and Climate Change, 100118
Research Question
What are the energy system and emissions impacts of achieving economy-wide net-zero in the United States across multiple models and policy scenarios?
Key Findings
- The Inflation Reduction Act amplifies near-term decarbonization, but additional policies have far larger impacts on long-run net-zero outcomes.
- Each dollar per metric ton of carbon pricing yields a 0.06–0.31% reduction in economy-wide CO2 across 14 models.
- Energy spending as a share of GDP decreases relative to today for many models — even under net-zero policies.
Health and Air Pollutant Emission Impacts of Net Zero CO2 by 2050 Scenarios from the Energy Modeling Forum 37
Daniel Loughlin, Luis Sarmiento, Johannes Emmerling, et al.
Energy and Climate Change, 100165
Research Question
What are the air quality and public health co-benefits of achieving net-zero CO2 emissions in the United States by 2050?
Key Findings
- Net-zero scenarios reduce NOx emissions by 37–80% and SO2 by up to 75% compared to 2020 levels.
- Health benefits from reduced mortality estimated at $65–250 billion in 2035 alone.
- Decarbonization yields large air quality co-benefits that grow over time as emission reductions become more stringent.
Carbon Management Technology Pathways for Reaching a US Economy-Wide Net-Zero Emissions Goal
Matthew Binsted, et al.
Energy and Climate Change, 100154
Research Question
What role do carbon capture, storage, and direct air capture technologies play in achieving economy-wide net-zero emissions in the US?
Key Findings
- Most models find it impossible to reach net-zero without CCS; average capture is ~1.3 Gt CO2/yr by 2050.
- Restricting access to CCS and/or direct air capture increases marginal abatement costs by a factor of 2 to 10.
- Hydrogen plays a small but valuable complementary role alongside the dominant contributions of point-source CCS and DACCS.
Comparing Net Zero Pathways across the Atlantic: A Model Inter-Comparison Exercise between the EMF-37 and ECEMF
Luis Sarmiento, et al.
Energy and Climate Change, 100144
Research Question
How do net-zero decarbonization pathways differ between the United States and the European Union?
Key Findings
- First comparison of US and EU net-zero pathways using 28+ integrated assessment and energy models.
- Carbon capture and storage is more predominant in the US due to a steeper decarbonization schedule.
- Electricity's share of final energy projected to grow from ~20% (2020) to 17–63% by 2050 across scenarios.
Equity Implications of Net-Zero Emissions: A Multi-Model Analysis of Energy Expenditures across Income Classes
John Bistline, et al.
Energy and Climate Change, 100118
Research Question
How are the costs of net-zero emissions policies distributed across income groups in the United States?
Key Findings
- Net-zero policy costs are unevenly distributed — lowest-income households face the largest percentage increase in energy expenditures.
- Per-capita rebates from climate policy revenues can offset energy burdens, creating net progressive outcomes.
- Seven-model comparison provides robust evidence on distributional effects across income groups.
Policy Reversals in Transitional Markets: The Effect of Changing Marginal Cost to Physical Order Dispatch
Raul Gutierrez-Meave, Juan Rosellon, Luis Sarmiento
Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy 13, no. 1 (2024)
Research Question
What are the consequences of reversing market-based electricity dispatch in favor of state-controlled physical order in Mexico?
Key Findings
- Mexico's 2021 dispatch reform increases the state company's market power to 99% of total generation by 2050.
- Renewable share in the generation mix drops from 72% to 51% under the new physical-order dispatch rule.
- Cumulative power sector emissions increase by 563 Mt CO2 — equivalent to ~€36 billion in carbon costs.
Mexico and US Power Systems Under Variations in Natural Gas Prices
Luis Sarmiento, et al.
Energy Policy, 151, 113378
Research Question
How do natural gas price variations affect the power systems and emissions trajectories of the US and Mexico?
Key Findings
- High natural gas prices boost carbon-intensive technologies short-term but accelerate renewable investment long-term.
- Low gas prices reduce coal use in the US, lowering short-term emissions but slowing the transition to renewables.
- Integrated framework linking three techno-economic models captures cross-border energy system interdependencies.
The Role of Energy Storage in the Uptake of Renewable Energy: A Model Comparison Approach
Sara Giarola, et al.
Energy Policy, 151, 112159
Research Question
How does energy storage interact with climate policies to support renewable energy deployment across North America?
Key Findings
- Storage promotes emissions reduction at lower costs when renewable mandates are in place.
- Under carbon taxes alone, renewables compete with other low-carbon options, reducing the role of storage.
- Four-model comparison (GENeSYS-MOD, MUSE, NATEM, urbs-MX) across North America highlights modeling uncertainties.
Analysing Scenarios for the Integration of Renewable Energy Sources in the Mexican Energy System
Luis Sarmiento, et al.
Energies, 12.17, 3270
Research Question
What is the cost-optimal pathway for integrating renewable energy sources in Mexico's energy system?
Key Findings
- Cost-optimal renewable shares by 2050: 75% for electricity, 90% for transportation, but only 5% for industrial heating.
- Mexico's official renewable targets are lower than the cost-optimal share — equivalent to a no-climate-policy scenario.
- Full decarbonization is technically feasible but requires substantially higher investment; current targets represent a missed economic opportunity.
Working Papers (1)
Temperatures and Distribution Blackouts: From Mechanisms to Health Impacts
Francesco Pietro Colelli, Filippo Pavanello, Luis Sarmiento
Research Question
Do extreme temperatures cause power distribution outages, and what are the resulting health consequences?
Key Findings
- 30% of overload outages are attributable to temperature shocks, rising to nearly 70% during summer months.
- A planned outage coinciding with a day above 30°C increases daily mortality by 13% on the same day and 58% cumulatively over one week.
- Findings underscore the health risks of climate-driven grid stress in developing regions with rising demand for cooling.